Anomalous Meltwater From Ice Sheets and Ice Shelves Is a Historical Forcing.

(Schmidt, G., Romanou, A., Roach, L., Mankoff, K., Li, Q., Rye, C., Kelley, M., Marshall, J., and Busecke, J.), Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 50, no. 24, 2023.

Abstract

Recent mass loss from ice sheets and ice shelves is now persistent and prolonged enough that it impacts downstream oceanographic conditions. To demonstrate this, we use an ensemble of coupled GISS-E2.1-G simulations forced with historical estimates of anomalous freshwater, in addition to other climate forcings, from 1990 through 2019. There are detectable differences in zonal-mean sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice in the Southern Ocean, and in regional sea level around Antarctica and in the western North Atlantic. These impacts mostly improve the model’s representation of historical changes, including reversing the forced trends in Antarctic sea ice. The changes in SST may have implications for estimates of the SST pattern effect on climate sensitivity and for cloud feedbacks. We conclude that the changes are sufficiently large that model groups should strive to include more accurate estimates of these drivers in all-forcing historical simulations in future coupled model intercomparisons.

doi = 10.1029/2023GL106530